Friday, March 13, 2020

Pandemic CoronaVirus Ultimate Origins

CV9 is a shorthand reference to SARS-CoV-2 in this manuscript. Sequences discussed in this analysis are variously stored publicly at GenBank and at GISAID. We gratefully acknowledge the authors, originating and submitting laboratories of the sequences from GenBank and from GISAID’s EpiFlu™ Database on which this research is based. A GISAID-generated list will eventually be detailed in a linked spreadsheet for completeness in citation.

Publish Date : 2020-03-13
Last Update  : 

GeneWurx Analytics targeting the Spike frame from the Antigens Complex of the Emergent Pandemic BetaCoronaVirus referenced by various nomenclature [nCoV-2019, hCoV-2019, SARS-CoV-2, et al] demonstrates a deeper reservoir for this COVID-19 disease process and genetic revision pool than is currently being discussed.  For practical purposes, we will simplify and refer to the viral pool currently supporting the pandemic in three-letter shorthand as CV9.

The early genetic diversity of the human-hosted CV9 sequences grants entry for examination of Ultimate Origins.  Present genetic records show that the much-studied bat-hosted CoV sequences exhibit some similarity to human-hosted CV9 genetics, but the extant base cannot allow conclusion that any particular bat or that bats in general are THE zoo reservoir or even A zoo reservoir.  Of course, MERS will contribute revision material, but is certainly not involved as a primary reservoir.  CoV in general, alpha, beta, gamma and delta, are promiscuous and willing to recombine.

We propose that wider coverage be taken of Avian hosts, including Anser, Passerine and Gallus Gallus [domestic poultry flocks] for consideration as providers of genetic revision material from Beta and non-BetaCoV infections.  GammaCoV-induced Avian IBV (Infectious Bronchitis Virus) would be a good place to start.  Co-infections with Beta- and Gamma-CoV may be more common than we have surveyed.  If we have the will to carefully evaluate, the Ultimate Origin CV9 may be found in a domestic poultry operation.

Or in a beautiful songbird.

Without question, these Avian host species are primed to contribute ongoing genetic material to CV9.  Countries with above-average Human-Avian contact may be at risk of assisting the genetic reservoirs underlying the COVID-19 disease process.  Rapid acquisition of a broader genetic diversity is a concern where species overlap and/or where intimate contact is common.  The growing D614G clade {CV9 Spike} exemplifies this probable pathway.

The present morbidity and mortality capability of human-hosted CV9 demonstrates potential for further advances in small groups of hosts that may drive higher Case Fatality Rates due to Antigen Escape and exceptional Tropism based on CoV Adaptive Receptor Recognition, fusion flexibility and polybasic cleavage advantages.  MERS, another emergent, High-CFR, human-infecting CoV, has demonstrated the ability to reroute the immune response and utilise an antibody to ENTER host cells [Antibody Dependent Enhancement].  Determination if this CV9 CoV exhibits a similar trait for host penetration is essential to mediation.

Let's work so that inter-species dead-ending is the norm and the high-impact human outbreaks are a low fatality COUNT.  Sharding of this virus into disparate transmissible vectors will be very difficult to contain.

Flash Fires are controllable . . . when engaged very early.

Once again, the birds are traveling.

Deep analytics required.